Seaton & Colyton MATTERS

More critically ill in their 50s than 70s, according to hospital data. Overall Covid mortality TWICE the Public Health England figures, i.e. 30,000+.

Posted on April 22, 2020 Updated on April 22, 2020

The Government has belatedly changed its advice in its new TV ad, aired since Easter. it now says that Covid-19 is ‘life-threatening to people of all age groups’. Previously it had said that ‘the over-70s’ and people with serious conditions were ‘the vulnerable group‘.

No explanation has been given for this change, but the diagram above says it all. According to a report from the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre, up to 3rd April there were more people in their 50s critically ill with Covid-19 than in their 70s, and more in their 30s and 40s than 80s. 

The figures will underestimate the number of 80+, because many are dying in care homes or at home without making it to hospital. However the message is still clear – and sobering.

Overall death toll now over 30,000, headed for 50,000

Indeed, the Cumulative Mortality Investigation (CMI) of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries estimates (page 5) that overall there have been TWICE the number of deaths reported in the daily hospital counts. When Public Health England reported 15,400 deaths, the CMI estimates that had been 26,000-32,000 excess deaths.

Now that PHE are reporting 18,000 deaths, the likely real total would be in the range 29,000-35,000, and heading to over 50,000 for this wave.

The excess deaths include many people who have died of Covid but where Covid has not been put on the death certificate.