Seaton & Colyton MATTERS

Divided opposition helps Tories cling on in Exmouth & Exeter East

Posted on July 5, 2024 Updated on July 5, 2024

While we are celebrating Richard Foord’s tremendous victory, spare a thought for our neighbours in the Exmouth & Exeter East constituency. Here, the combined Labour and Lib Dem vote was almost 26,000, compared to a Tory vote of 14,700, but division between the opposition candidates cost them the seat. Tory David Reed held on by just 121 votes over the Labour candidate Helen Dallimore, with Paul Arnott for the Lib Dems behind them.

I strongly supported Paul, not only because he would have been an excellent MP but also because I believed he was best placed to beat the Tory. The chart below shows how the Lib Dems had consistently been the main challengers in the area before Claire Wright’s Independent campaigns – and Claire was supporting Paul. Yet many polling projections, applying oversimplified national models, were unable to take into account of the unusual situation created by Claire’s legacy, and projected Labour to beat the Tories – which Dallimore’s campaign naturally capitalised on. Meanwhile, other projections, which I shared, showed Paul winning.

The actual result shows that both parties had substantial support. Labour’s advantage in ‘tactical’ recommendations may have pushed them ahead of the Lib Dems – but not enough, since other projections suggested the Lib Dems were ahead. Thus the competing campaigns and projections proved a recipe for failure. Neither national party gave strong backing to their candidate, which added to the confusion.

The lessons are that First Past The Post is a brutal system. In Devon, where the Tories will always be strong, we need a consensus on the challenger – as we had with Richard after his by-election win. Really, we need to end the need for tactical voting by introducing Proportional Representation. Let us hope that Labour members will now push Keir Starmer to rethink his opposition to this. We also need PR to avoid the return of a Tory government in 5 or 10 years’ time.