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Divided opposition helps Tories cling on in Exmouth & Exeter East
While we are celebrating Richard Foord’s tremendous victory, spare a thought for our neighbours in the Exmouth & Exeter East constituency. Here, the combined Labour and Lib Dem vote was almost 26,000, compared to a Tory vote of 14,700, but division between the opposition candidates cost them the seat. Tory David Reed held on by just 121 votes over the Labour candidate Helen Dallimore, with Paul Arnott for the Lib Dems behind them.
I strongly supported Paul, not only because he would have been an excellent MP but also because I believed he was best placed to beat the Tory. The chart below shows how the Lib Dems had consistently been the main challengers in the area before Claire Wright’s Independent campaigns – and Claire was supporting Paul. Yet many polling projections, applying oversimplified national models, were unable to take into account of the unusual situation created by Claire’s legacy, and projected Labour to beat the Tories – which Dallimore’s campaign naturally capitalised on. Meanwhile, other projections, which I shared, showed Paul winning.
The actual result shows that both parties had substantial support. Labour’s advantage in ‘tactical’ recommendations may have pushed them ahead of the Lib Dems – but not enough, since other projections suggested the Lib Dems were ahead. Thus the competing campaigns and projections proved a recipe for failure. Neither national party gave strong backing to their candidate, which added to the confusion.
The lessons are that First Past The Post is a brutal system. In Devon, where the Tories will always be strong, we need a consensus on the challenger – as we had with Richard after his by-election win. Really, we need to end the need for tactical voting by introducing Proportional Representation. Let us hope that Labour members will now push Keir Starmer to rethink his opposition to this. We also need PR to avoid the return of a Tory government in 5 or 10 years’ time.
A sweeping victory for Richard
23007 votes to Simon Jupp’s 16307. This is way beyond our expectations – what a testimony to Richard, everyone who worked on his campaign, and to the good sense of the voters here in the Seaton area and around the constituency. It’s the first time that Sidmouth has not had a Tory MP for 189 years!
Tell everyone – you don’t need your polling card to vote
Some voters in Seaton are reporting that they still haven’t received their cards.
First votes cast in Seaton – no Conservative teller on the main polling station
Only the Liberal Democrats – and the voters, of course – seem to be taking the election seriously.
Open Letter: Britain is on the brink of change – does East Devon want to remain a Tory backwater?
Dear fellow citizens of East Devon,
On Thursday, we will remove the Conservative government that has broken Britain over the last 14 years. Hundreds of areas will elect Labour MPs, scores will return Lib Dems, and a few, hopefully, Greens. But does East Devon want to be part of this change? Or are we content to remain a Tory backwater, as we have been for 100 years?
This is the question on the ballot paper. Devon has been shockingly taken for granted by the Tories. If we do not remove them now, what will that tell the incoming Labour government? Oh, they stripped our community hospitals of their beds. They left them to be demolished for housing. But, hey, East Devon is still happy to have a Tory to represent us? It would hardly be surprising if a Labour minister concluded: these people are complete suckers – we’ve got other areas to attend to first.
If we want to be part of the change, if we want to be listened to and taken seriously, that means voting for it. And voting for a new government, in this area, means voting Lib Dem – if you vote Labour or Green or other, your vote will be wasted and you could be helping the Tories to cling on.
I’m not a Lib Dem. I don’t think they’re perfect. They’ve made some big mistakes – but so, for that matter, has Labour (remember Iraq?). But under our first-past-the-post voting system – which Labour supports – to be part of this year’s change we have to choose the party that’s most likely to beat the Conservatives in our local area, and in both Honiton/Sidmouth and Exmouth/Exeter East, that means the Lib Dems.
It helps that in both constituencies, the Lib Dems have outstanding, genuinely local candidates – Richard Foord, who has made his mark supporting Seaton Hospital, and Paul Arnott, who has led the fight to end Tory corruption in the district council over the last decade. But even if they didn’t – do you really want another Tory carpetbagger who cares little for our area?
On Thursday, make sure you cast your vote for change. In both our constituencies, the results will be close. There are still too many of our neighbours who ARE content to let the old corruption carry on. They must not prevail. Instead, vote for a different East Devon, and a different Britain.
Please think about this, and pass the message on to your families and friends.
Martin Shaw, former Independent Devon County Councillor.
Seaton, 2 July 2024.
Shock FT projection of Tory win over Richard – even while Paul pulls off narrow victory in Exmouth?
The latest projection from the Financial Times shows Richard Foord still lagging behind the Tory by 4.7 per cent. Meanwhile, the same pollsters show Paul Arnott pulling ahead of the Tory by 4.5 per cent in Exmouth.
The lessons. First, these are projections and could be out. Second, they confirm that in both areas, the battle is between the Tories and the Lib Dems. Third, if you want change, vote for it – in our area, vote Lib Dem. If you vote Labour, Green, or other, you are likely to help the Tories cling on. Now that’s something you DON’T want to wake up to on Friday.
Desperate Tories take down Lib Dem signs overnight in Seaton
The Conservatives have lost the election arguments locally as well as nationally, so they are resorting to underhand tactics – removing their opponents’ poster boards. Last night, I lost the one outside my house while a large one on the verge at the top of Beer Road was also stolen,
Richard towers over rivals at Seaton hustings
Seaton’s Liberal Democrat MP for the last two years, RICHARD FOORD (pictured speaking), dominated last night’s hustings in the Gateway, leaving his Conservative rival, Simon Jupp (on the right, looking on) a marginal figure. As Richard outlined his decades of experience in the military and education, Jupp’s background a special political adviser seemed no match.
As Richard recounted, it was he who, after hearing from the League of Friends of the threat to a wing of Seaton Hospital, first alerted the local community. Jupp repeated the lie that he had been ‘blocked’ from joining the Hospital Steering Committee which was set up in November at the public meeting I organised, but the simple truth is that – as I reminded the hustings – he didn’t bother to turn up, despite already having canvassed in Seaton for a whole year by that point.
Concerns about the NHS and social care dominated the meeting, but the Party of Women candidate, Hazel Exon, provoked anger from the floor when she answered questions about the environment by repeating her conspiracy theories about trans people – which were ably challenged by a young woman in the audience.
Jupp showed his right-wing instincts by pitching for support from climate and vaccine sceptics, but sounded subdued – the audience had largely moved beyond the Conservatives. Having moved first to Exmouth and then to Sidmouth so that he could call himself a ‘local man’ in his election leaflets, Jupp must now be wondering where he will go after Friday’s result.
Green candidate says vote for Richard Foord
At tonight’s Axminster hustings (pictured above), Green Party candidate Henry Gent said, ‘Vote for the candidate best placed to defeat the Conservative’ – that is, for Richard Foord. Jake Bonetta. the Labour candidate, has previously said, ‘We cannot let the Tories win here’, but he did not make a clear statement like Henry Gent’s tonight. Yet that is what is needed – Richard is not sure of beating the Tory, who some projections still back to win. Every vote counts – as Henry indicated, there will be another day when it makes sense to vote Green or Labour, but not now.
Local Plan: last chance to comment on the Green Wedge
The consultation on EDDC’s new Local Plan closes on Thursday (27th). I’ve now commented on the Seaton-Colyford Green Wedge – reminding the planners of the 150-strong public meeting which I chaired last year – and the Seaton-Beer wedge.
This is you last chance – the process is easy, although the format doesn’t let you go back over your answers easily, or see what others have said. I posted a summary of the issues from the Green Wedge group a week or so back, if you need prompts on what to mention/
Seaton & Colyton MATTERS 