Most authoritative polling projection yet shows @ClaireWrightInd narrowing the Tory lead to 47-41: Labour, Lib Dems and Greens are nowhere but their voters could deprive Claire of victory
Pollsters YouGov have just released their MRP polling estimates based on 100,000 interviews nationwide and extremely sophisticated application to individual constituencies. These confirm an extremely tight race in East Devon (go HERE and search ‘East Devon’). In percentages it’s
- CONSERVATIVES range 37-57, central estimate 47
- CLAIRE WRIGHT range 31-51, central estimate 41
- Labour range 2-11, central estimate 6
- Lib Dem range 1-7, central estimate 4
- Green Party range 0-4, central estimate 2
So Claire could already be in the lead, but on the balance of probabilities the Tories are ahead by just 6 per cent, down from 12 per cent in 2017.
- So we need a final big push to close the gap
- Dan Wilson (Labour), Eleanor Rylance (LD) and Henry Gent (Green) have made their parties’ case but are going nowhere – who will be the first to salvage honour from what threatens to be a humiliating result, by recommending that their voters switch to Claire and put beating the Tories ahead of party?
- Turnout, especially among young voters, will be crucial – if all Claire’s supporters come out to vote, she’ll win. Remember many older voters will already be voting by post for the Tory.