Analysis of DCC results shows the challenge facing the opposition in East Devon

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Analysis of the 6th May election results shows the challenge facing the opposition in future elections in East Devon. The bottom line, reported here before, is that the Tories got 83.3 per cent of the seats for 43.8 per cent of the vote. The non-Conservative parties and Independents between them got 16.7 per cent of the seats for 56.2 per cent of the vote.

These figures make an overwhelming case for (1) proportional representation and (2), so long as we’ve got the First Past The Post system, a Progressive Alliance, if the opposition is to win under the existing system.

Indeed a serious worry emerges. The Tory share of the vote which gave them this majority of seats, 43.8, was 7.6 per cent higher than their vote in the EDDC elections of 2019 – when they lost control of the council for the first time (see bottom line of the table). The Tory vote in 2019 was exceptionally low (the result of the pre-Brexit confusion), meaning that even with split opposition votes, they lost a lot of seats.

If the Tories consolidate their return to their normal 40-45 per cent range in 2021, the current progressive majority at EDDC will lose ground unless more serious steps are taken towards a Progressive Alliance strategy.

ConLabIndInd EDALib DemGreenOtherturnout %
AXMINSTER1672498143920938.7
BROADCLIYST*31591170535896199232
EXMOUTH & BUDLEIGH230747846074750314638.7
EXMOUTH*5412273323731844121430.2
FENITON & HONITON2094149132134.1
OTTER VALLEY128113432248020443.5
SEATON & COLYTON2321306217616017942.5
SIDMOUTH2601209243142.8
WHIMPLE253562469052339.9
Total votes2338276436592604649474436325
Average vote per candidate19486371648201549588781
Per cent43.814.312.411.39.38.30.6
Average % per division43.814.332.74110.1121.7
Per cent EDDC 201936.26.31415.315.33.41.1

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