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The election will be very close locally – Tories will sneak in if people waste their votes on Labour, pollster predicts
Pollsters Electoral Calculus predict that Conservative candidate, Simon Jupp, could sneak in with only 36 per cent of the vote, if a sizeable number of people vote Labour instead of the only realistic alternative, our Liberal Democrat MP Richard Foord. Do we really want our excellent new MP, the first non-Conservative elected here, to be cast out like this – leaving us as one of the few part of the country still represented by the discredited Tories?
| Party | 2019 Votes estimated for new boundaries | 2019 Share estimated for new boundaries | 2022 By-election | Predicted 2024 Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CONSERVATIVE | 30,752 | 57.0% | 38.5% | 36.4% |
| INDEPENDENT | 8,464 | 15.7% | didn’t stand | not standing |
| LABOUR | 7,492 | 13.9% | 3.7% | 16.1% |
| LIB DEM | 5,280 | 9.8% | 52.9% | 33.7% |
| Green | 1,202 | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.8% |
| OTH | 748 | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.3% |
| Reform | 0 | didn’t stand | 1.1% | 9.7% |
| CON Majority | 22,288 | 41.3% | 2.6% Predicted Majority |
Levelling-up has been little more than a hollow slogan
Seaton’s seafront bid was ignored. Report from Devon Live: https://www.devonlive.com/news/news-opinion/levelling-up-been-little-more-9298346?IYA-mail=adc0c5a9-26cd-4e5e-b205-75658af49bef
General Election at last: Richard is our man
After fourteen years in which East Devon has been taken for granted and our NHS run down – with our community hospitals stripped of their beds and lined up for demolition – we finally have an opportunity to remove the discredited Conservative government.
Richard Foord, our Lib Dem MP, has shown himself an excellent friend of Seaton and Colyton and had worked tirelessly for the hospital. Put your X next to his name on July 4th.
Not just SW Water – the Tories are also to blame for the scandal of our privatised water industry
Paul Arnott’s plea for people to take part in the “Green Wedge” consultation
Paul Arnott, leader of EDDC (his column on the local press):
On Monday night this week for the first time in years I watched the climax of the world snooker finals on BBC2 when Kyren Wilson prevailed over the dignified Jak Jones. It took me back…
— Read on eastdevonwatch.org/2024/05/09/paul-arnott-explains-the-reason-behind-the-green-wedge-consultation/
And another one: Exmouth council byelection – split opposition lets Tories retain seat
From East Devon Watch:
See below for Owl’s analysis East Devon District Council – By-election 2 May 2024 Declaration of results for East Devon District Council Exmouth Brixington Ward 2 May 2024 Exmouth Brixington Name of CandidateDescription (if any)Number of votesElected?BAILEY Aurora EConservative Party Candidate586electedBENNETT, JulieThe Labour Party339 CONDUIT, DianneLiberal Democrats513 ROSSER, Michael JThe Green Party136 Electorate: 6110Ballot Papers Issued: 1593Rejected…
— Read on eastdevonwatch.org/2024/05/03/brixington-by-election-split-opposition-lets-tories-retain-seat-on-38-of-the-vote/
Discredited Tory police commissioner hangs on because big anti-Tory majority splits its votes
It’s a big disappointment that Alison Hernández, the Conservative Devon & Cornwall police commissioner, has been re-elected with 131,000 votes to 107,000 for Labour and 64,000 for the Lib Dems.
This is a clear lesson here for the General Election – there is a clear anti-Tory majority in our region (171,000 to 131,000 in this case) and we can remove most of their MPs. But if we split our votes between two or three opposition candidates in a constituency, the Tories will survive.
Richard Foord calls for Parliament to have a say on any military action
Not everyone is aware, perhaps, that not only is Richard Foord a very effective constituency MP – his office has just completed its 10,000th constituency case since he was elected 22 months ago – but he also plays an important role as the Liberal Democrats’ Defence spokesperson. He was influential to getting the party to push for a Gaza ceasefire – before Labour came round to it – and now, following recent use of British forces to support Israel against Iran, he has stood up for the principle that Parliament should have a say on any British military action. You can watch here.
Tories have rigged the voting system to try to keep their Police & Crime Commissioner
As postal votes arrive for the Police & Crime Commissioner elections, it’s important to understand that the Conservatives have changed the voting system to try and stave off defeat for their candidates. In previous elections, you could also express a second preference, and in both 2016 and 2021, the Labour candidates came close to defeating the Tories, after many Lib Dem voters gave their second choices to Labour. This year, the government has changed the system to first-past-the-post – no second preference.
The present Tory commissioner, Alison Hernandez – never seen in East Devon except for election photo-opportunities – is hoping to squeak back in thanks to opposition votes being split between Labour and the Lib Dems. Since Labour has proven to be stronger in these elections in the past, I’ll be voting for them. Horses for courses – in the General Election, of course, I’ll be supporting our Lib Dem MP, Richard Foord.
Seaton & Colyton MATTERS 